After the dust has settled from Hawaii’s Eric Cantor moment where the incumbent governor Neil Abercrombie lost in a landslide of historic proportions in his primary, what the Democrats are left with is a guy, State Senator David Ige, who has never run a statewide campaign, who much is not known, who is lite on the fundraising ability, and can’t debate to save his life. He’s running against two guys who previously ran multiple big races, including statewide gubernatorial ones. The Republican challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona, will be getting buckets of outside money to ravage Ige, who will have difficulty distinguishing himself politically from his predecessor on the issues.
Former Honolulu Mayor, and former Democrat, Mufi Hannemann, has the name recognition, and could provide the narrative and the vision that may be more attractive to the voters, even if he is running on the newly formed Hawaii Independent Party ticket. Especially if the Republicans manage to tie Ige to the highly unpopular Abercrombie.
Not a single person anywhere that I can find calls this race as anything other than a toss up. If Hannemann stays positive, rolls out a seriously good position on education issues — that includes actual money, not just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic — allow me to be the first to predict the first Hawaii Independent Party win.
For the naysayers who don’t think a third party can win a governorship, I have six names pulled from modern history for you: Chafee, Crist, Ventura, King, Weicker, and Hickel.